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Dollar Bottom Elusive Before G-7; Bearish Bets Double

Bloomberg
Monday, April 7, 2008

Optimism for a dollar rebound that pervaded the currency market at the start of the year is fading.

Futures traders doubled bets against the greenback in the past two months, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show. Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which handle almost 40 percent of global foreign exchange trading, say the currency may slump to $1.65 per euro by October.

While the dollar rose April 1 when UBS AG and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said they're raising $19 billion to shore up their capital, it retreated for the rest of the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a recession is possible. Officials of the Group of Seven nations meet this week in Washington, and are unlikely to agree on a plan to boost the currency because rising exports may be the only blessing of a weak currency in a weakening economy.

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``The dollar will continue to move lower in the next couple of months until the U.S. economy improves markedly,'' said Adam Boyton, senior currency strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank.

The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six of its main counterparts, tumbled the past two months after trading little changed between October and mid-February. It's down 5.8 percent in 2008, after dropping 8.3 percent in each of the past two years.

The dollar advanced 0.3 percent to $1.5691 per euro by 10:02 a.m. in London, following a 0.3 percent drop on April 4. It also climbed 1.2 percent to 102.69 yen.

Full article here.

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