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Account Management
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Oil Falls to 3-Year Low on Signs U.S. in Longest Post-War Slump

Christian Schmollinger and Grant Smith
Bloomberg
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2008

Crude oil fell to the lowest in more than three years on signs the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, may be in the longest slump since World War II.

The U.S. first entered a recession in December 2007, the panel of economists that dates American business cycles said yesterday. The country’s manufacturing output in November contracted at the fastest pace in 26 years, a report showed. Crude pared losses as the dollar weakened against the euro, making commodities more attractive as a currency hedge.

“Demand is going down from week to week, hand-in-hand with the worldwide slowdown in economic growth,” said Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at BayernLB in Munich. “If sentiment gets worse and equities move lower we could see oil go to $40.”

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Crude oil for January delivery dropped as much as $1.92, or 3.9 percent, to $47.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest since May 20, 2005. It was at $48.56 at 10:47 a.m. in London.

Oil prices have tumbled 68 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11 as the U.S., Europe and Japan face their first simultaneous recession since World War II.

Crude is also under pressure after the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned producer said it would provide full contractual volumes to Asian refiners, indicating members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may fail to fully comply with production cuts last month.

“All the poor economic news plus the lack of clear indication of full compliance on the part of OPEC, means a further downturn is possible,” said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore.

Full article here

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