If we were inclined to borrow a phrase from Ronald Reagan,
we might reproach the Pentagon bigwigs by saying, "Well,
there you go again." This year, as in virtually every year
for the past fifty years, the military chiefs are trying to
minimize the enormousness of their proposed baseline budget
($515.4 billion) by dividing it by the amount of the concurrent
gross domestic product (GDP).
And, as usual, the news media are playing along with this trick,
which, as always, will surely occupy many commentators and fuel
heated debates about the adequacy of the defense budget. The
New York Times has got this year's show off to a bang-up beginning
with a February 4 article by Thom Shanker, who notes, as if
it were relevant, that "even the colossal Pentagon budgets
for regular operations and the war efforts consume a smaller
portion of gross domestic product than in previous conflicts."
Want to make this year's gigantic Pentagon proposal look small?
All you need to do is to divide it by this year's GDP and then
compare the resulting ratio to the ratio that obtained during
the Korean War (13–14 percent) or the Vietnam War (7–9
percent). To make this year's spending appear almost tiny, dredge
up the ratio for the fully mobilized years of World War II (37–38
percent).
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The current ratio, including the Pentagon's baseline budget,
the nuclear-weapons program (run by the Energy Department),
and the supplemental budgets enacted to fund direct war-fighting
costs for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, comes to about 4
percent. In military lingo, that fraction is usually expressed
as "only 4 percent." The military leadership, fearful
that the future may ultimately bring a spending retrenchment
after the fighting subsides in southwest Asia, wants to make
this 4 percent figure a lower bound on future spending. (Note
well: to arrive at all military-related spending, we must approximately
double the Pentagon's baseline budget.)
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen,
the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently emphasized
the importance of this limit. Said Mullen, "I really do
believe this 4 percent floor is important . . . really important,
given the world we're living in, given the threats that we see
out there, the risks that are, in fact, global, not just in
the Middle East" – standard Pentagon gibberish to
suggest a world populated by terrifying and deadly monsters
intent on destroying this country root and branch.
Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell sang the same song.
"The secretary believes that whenever we transition away
from war supplementals, the Congress should dedicate 4 percent
of our G.D.P. to funding national security. That is what he
believes to be a reasonable price to stay free and protect our
interests around the world."
A far more reasonable price, however, would be one arrived
at completely independent of its relation to GDP. Recall that
the GDP purports to be the value at market prices of all currently
produced final goods and services the U.S. economy brings forth
in a year. It includes everything from hamburgers to computer
software to H-bombs. Why, we might ask, should military spending
bear any particular proportion to this figure?
Does it not make much more sense to assess the actual threats
the country faces, to determine the optimal means of meeting
or deterring these threats with a sufficient degree of confidence,
and then to add up the costs of obtaining the stipulated means?
Whether this total amount happens to be 1 percent or 20 percent
of GDP is entirely beside the point, which is to protect the
American people from potential, likely, external attackers.
Once an adequate defense program has been designed and its components
priced, the military leadership can present the total bill to
Congress and defend it by showing, item by item, why each of
its elements is necessary to achieve the desired degree of national
security.
If the national economy produces more hamburgers and computer
software next year, these economic developments in no way imply
that more money should then be spent for defense. If the threats
remain the same and the costs of acquiring defense goods and
services remain the same, then the defense budget can remain
fixed in amount and still serve its proper purpose. Notice,
however, that if the GDP continues to grow, this adequate, fixed-amount,
military budget will constitute a smaller fraction of GDP.
During national emergencies or non-emergency military buildups
such as that of the 1980s, the military leadership invariably
argues that defense spending must be increased as a fraction
of GDP. Then, when the emergency fades or the buildup is completed,
the argument becomes that the ratio must not be permitted to
decline. This sequence of events is a recipe for upward-ratcheting
growth of the defense share of GDP, regardless of its reasonableness
in relation to dealing with actual foreign threats. It's no
wonder the U.S. military has so many golf courses, executive
jets for top-ranking officers, and more than 700 bases scattered
around the world, most of them wholly superfluous in relation
to defending the American people.
It is long past time for the media and the American people
to stop being taken in by shopworn rhetorical trickery such
as that attending the ritual discussion of defense spending
relative to GDP. Its only real purpose is to minimize the magnitude
of a defense budget that has swollen to absurdly gigantic proportions.
Why can't the Department of Defense today defend the country
for a smaller annual amount than it needed to defend the country
during the Cold War, when we faced an enemy with large, modern
armed forces and thousands of accurate, nuclear-armed ICBMs?