While global warming is the current the-sky-is-falling mantra,
many scientists are warning of an impending cooling trend.
Follow this link to the original source: "The
Sun Also Sets"
When I was a lad in primary school, we were warned of climate
change. It was a tad scary, too, as the prospect of becoming
an icicle in a frozen wasteland wasn't very appealing. Hey,
we wanted to be able to go outside and sometimes play with balls
not made out of snow.
Yes, it was said another ice age might be nigh.
This isn't surprising. It was the early 1970s and temperatures
had been dropping for the previous 30 years or so.
That's right, dropping.
This is one of the problems with "living in the moment."
While we often place great emphasis on it, it can be perilous
when evaluating phenomena. It's much like a frog experiencing
his first winter and thinking the days of verdant meadows are
gone forever. Perhaps he is surprised when the flowers bloom
next spring.
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So it is with climate change today. Many people are a tad solipsistic
and behave as if the happenings during their existence define
reality; yet, the history that must inform here is that of the
world, not that of our own little world.
This is why the anthropogenic global warming hysteria is truly
fascinating. It's as if those in its grip never heard the
phrase "ever-changing Universe." In point of fact,
the only constants this side of Heaven are Truth and change.
And the climate is no exception.
Nor is recent history. After a noticeable temperature increase
from the mid-19th century till about 1940, there was that mid-20th
century cooling trend; this was following by a return to warming
between the mid-1970s and late 1990s. Now even that has abated,
with temperatures having remained relatively flat or even dropping
since 1998. Someone please tell Al Gore.
Why these natural cycles exist is a subject of some debate.
While CO2 is widely "implicated" in global warming
(and the notion that CO2 is harmful is a bit fanciful; for instance,
crop yields increase when CO2 levels are higher; this is why
gardeners pump it into greenhouses), a better explanation might
be fluctuating solar cycles. This is the assertion of Canadian
scientists conducting research on climate change. Reporting
on this, Investor's Business Daily tells us:
R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of
the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton
University, says that 'CO2 variations show little correlation
with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short
time scales.'
Rather, he says, 'I and the first-class scientists I
work with are consistently finding excellent correlations
between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate.
This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate
source of energy on this planet.'
This information isn't new or revolutionary, just largely
ignored. Of course, I've also heard that temperature variations
are related to the amount of salt in the oceans, so I'm
unsure of what the cause is. And I'm certainly no climate
scientist.
I'm also not a frog.
So I am quite sure of what the cause isn't: Man. This is
because I know history.
The Earth has seen at least four major ice ages and numerous
minor ones during the last 1.5 million years, and each cycle
was followed by a period of warming. And these and other climatic
vagaries occurred despite the absence of man's meddling
hands. For example, there was:
- The Cryogenian
Period, during which the planet was entirely covered by
ice and snow.
- A period where glaciers were virtually gone the world over.
- The time of the dinosaurs, where CO2 levels were 5 to 10
times what they are today and foliage was lush.
- An age when the Florida sea level was 100 feet higher than
today and another when it was 300 feet lower.
More recently, we experienced what is known as the "Little
Ice Age," which followed the "Medieval Warm Period"
and extended from approximately the 16th century to the mid-19th.
Thus, it isn't surprising that we had been experiencing
a slight warming because we have been emerging from that period.
To read more about this, read Professor Syun-Ichi Akasofu's
article on the recovery
from the Little Ice Age at TheNewAmerican.com.
Aside from history, a grasp of current events wouldn't hurt,
either. Note that:
Oh, we shouldn't base conclusions on anecdotal evidence?
Exactly.
Yet, when we view these events against the backdrop of trends,
both historical and recent, it appears reasonable to conclude
that the sun might have set on global warming.
Whatever the trend, it's even more reasonable to say that
it's the work of Mother Nature, not man. The Earth has many
seasons: The 90,000-year ice-age cycles and 10,000-year interglacial
warm periods; 1500-year
cycles of warming and cooling; and then winter, spring,
summer and fall. There are cycles, cycles within cycles, and
cycles within those cycles. It's a very confusing picture,
but one that was drawn before man graced the planet and by a
hand infinitely more powerful.
As for our current capacity for understanding climate, Richard
S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science
at MIT, describes "weather and climate science" as
being in a "primitive state." Thus, are we to believe
predictions about the temperature 50 years hence? Science can't
even tell us definitively what the weather will be like on Thursday.
The only thing we can know for sure is that it will be different.
And the only ones who don't understand this are frogs and
those who mistake moments — chronological or ideological — for
a fair sample of eternity.
