DEBKAfile's military sources report that Hamas does not
propose to put its entire 15,000-strong army in harm's way
against the expected Israeli military invasion. It will confine
its resistance to small pockets and sabotage and let Israel
troops occupy most of Gaza Strip territory. Assuming the incoming
force will stop short of conquering Gaza City and put it to
siege, Hamas planners believe this siege force will be Israel's
Achilles heel. They propose to wear it down over weeks by
nocturnal guerrilla forays from within Gaza City and force
an inconclusive end to the conflict.
Thousands of Hamas combatants have begun infiltrating Gaza
City after shedding their uniforms and are taking over civilian
apartments.
DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that Israel's war planners
have factored Hamas' thinking into their calculations and
built tactics to catch them unawares.
Hamas strategists expect the Israeli ground operation to
start with a simultaneous three-prong incursion of armor and
special forces from the north, the east and the south. The
invaders will occupy most of the 20x40-kilometer area of the
Gaza Strip within 5 to 7 days at most, skirting and encircling
Gaza City and other main towns. They will then, according
to Hamas' calculations, carve the territory up into five pockets,
each with its own military commander.
Pocket 1 will extend from the southernmost Philadelphi belt
on the Egyptian border up to the southern outskirts of Khan
Younis. Israeli units will then set about destroying the network
of hundreds of smuggling tunnels which has kept Hamas supplied
with arms, fuel and reinforcements through Sinai. Cairo may
have tacitly approved the Israel plan.
Pocket 2 will cover the Khan Younes district up to the Kissufim
junction.
Pocket 3 will cover the central region of the Gaza Strip
up to the Karni Crossing, including the Moazi and El Bureij
refugee camps.
Pocket 4 will encompass Jebalya, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya,
the primary rocket and missile sites, up to the northern border
with Israel.
Pocket 5 An Israeli force will encircle Gaza City and send
detachments into the town to liquidate Hamas targets and operatives
from allied Palestinian terror groups.
Hamas believes the IDF force will be at its most vulnerable
when its Gaza City siege force is faced with an active fighting
front of 3,000-5,000 armed Palestinians. By day, they will
mingle with the civilian population and by night emerge from
hideouts in private homes to hit the Israeli armored forces
from the rear with anti-tank weapons and suicide bombers.
The Palestinian group's leaders are counting on inflicting
casualties that will mount up week after week and wear Israeli
forces down until they are driven into an ignominious retreat.