The
U.S. economy probably lost more jobs in 2008 than in any year
since the end of World War II as firings rippled from homebuilders
and automakers to banks and retailers, a government report
may show this week.
Payrolls fell 500,000 in December, bringing last year’s
decline to 2.4 million, the most since 1945, according to
the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
ahead of Labor Department figures due Jan. 9. The unemployment
rate likely jumped to the highest level since 1993.
The figures will underscore the urgency behind President-
elect Barack Obama’s plan to pass a stimulus package
that will create jobs and mitigate the recession, already
the longest in a quarter century. Other reports may show slumps
in housing, manufacturing and service industries deepened
at the end of last year, setting the stage for more weakness
in 2009.
“We’re continuing to lose massive amounts of
jobs,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan
Chase & Co. in New York. “The negative momentum
carrying over into the first half of 2009 will hold down the
economy regardless of policy.”
The jobless rate probably climbed to 7 percent in December
from 6.7 percent the prior month, according to the survey
median.
Manufacturers probably cut 103,000 workers from payrolls,
the report may also show. Factories, which make up 12 percent
of the economy, shrank in December at the fastest pace in
28 years as new orders for products from cars to furniture
reached the lowest level since records began in 1948, the
Institute for Supply Management reported last week.
Auto Bailout
The Bush administration agreed last month to give General
Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC $13.4 billion in federal loans
to avert bankruptcy. GM, whose shares slid 87 percent in 2008
-- the most among the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average - - and Chrysler probably led a drop in December U.S.
auto sales that capped the industry’s worst year since
1992, according to the average forecast of analysts surveyed.
The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s report on services,
covering the rest of the economy, is due Jan. 6. That index
likely dropped in December to the lowest level since records
began in 1997, the survey showed, as Americans cut back during
what may have been the worst holiday shopping season in four
decades of record keeping.
Electronic Arts Inc., the second-biggest video-game publisher,
last month boosted planned job cuts to 1,000, or 10 percent
of its workforce, and said it will consolidate or close at
least nine studio and publishing locations.
“Labor-market conditions have deteriorated,”
Federal Reserve policy makers said last month when they cut
the benchmark interest-rate target to as low as zero. The
central bank also has said it will buy debt as the next step
in combating the recession, now in its 13th month. Minutes
of the Fed’s Dec. 16 meeting will be released on Jan.
6.