Gold May Advance for Eighth Year as ‘Perfect Insurance’
Sought
Nicholas Larkin, Claudia Carpenter
and Pham-Duy Nguyen Bloomberg
Tuesday, Jan 6, 2009
Gold, the best-performing metal in 2008, may appreciate
for an eighth year as investors seek a refuge from declining
interest rates at the same time that central banks inject
more cash into the banking system.
The metal will average $910 an ounce in 2009, 4.3 percent
more than last year, according to the median forecast of 20
analysts, traders and investors surveyed by Bloomberg. Silver
and platinum, which averaged at least 12 percent more in 2008,
will decline this year, the survey showed.
Gold prices may strengthen after about $29 trillion was wiped
off equities last year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates
to as low as zero and governments sought to end the worst
financial crisis since World War II. The metal was one of
only four commodities to rise when the Reuters/Jefferies CRB
Index fell 36 percent, the worst year in a half-century.
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“People fear inflation, they fear the credit crunch
and they fear currency losses, and gold is the perfect insurance
against all of that,” said Frederic Panizzutti, a senior
vice president at Geneva-based bullion refiner MKS Finance
SA, who forecasts gold will average more than $900 in the
first half of 2009. Panizzutti was the most accurate forecaster
in the London Bullion Market Association’s 2008 survey.
Average gold prices have risen for seven consecutive years,
the longest winning streak since at least 1949. While the
return of 5.8 percent through 2008 was the smallest since
2004 in dollar terms, gold rose 11 percent in euros and 44
percent in British pounds, data on Bloomberg show.