PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS Counterpunch
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2009
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm
payroll employment declined by 3,445,000 from December
2007 through December 2008.
The collapse in employment is across the board.
Construction lost 520,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 806,000
jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities lost 1,495,000
jobs (retail trade accounted for 1,120,000 of this loss).
Financial activities lost 145,000 jobs. Professional and
business services lost 713,000 jobs. Even government lost
188,000 jobs.
Only in health care and social assistance has the economy
been able to eke out a few new jobs.
Many analysts believe the job losses will be as great
or greater during 2009.
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Moreover, the reported job losses are likely understated.
Noted statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) reports
that biases in measurement have understated the job loss
over the last 12 months by 1,150,000 jobs. Williams reports
the unemployment rate as it was measured prior to “reforms”
designed to minimize the measured rate of unemployment.
According to the methodology used in 1980, the US unemployment
rate in December 2008 reached 17.5 percent.
Yes, “our” government lies to us about economic
statistics, just as it lies to us about “terrorists,”
“weapons of mass destruction,” “building
freedom and democracy in the Middle East,” and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
An objective person would be hard pressed to find any
statement made by the US government that is reliable.
The collapse of the job market means even harder times
for last year’s and this year’s crops of college
graduates. The offshoring of professional jobs and the
widespread use by US corporations of H-1b, L-1, and other
work visa programs for foreigners have left many recent
American university graduates without careers.
Recently, Bill Gates of Microsoft was pleading with Congress
to allow even more foreigners in on work visas. According
to Gates, there is a shortage of American workers despite
a 17.5 percent unemployment rate. I personally know American
computer engineers, both seasoned and recent graduates,
who cannot find jobs.
What Gates and American corporations want is cheap labor,
in effect indentured servants, unprotected people who
don’t demand an American standard of living and
who have no student loans to repay.
If Congress expands the work visas as US unemployment
mounts, we will have one more piece of evidence that “our”
representatives have no sympathy for the American people.
Where were America’s leaders while the economy
slipped over the precipice?
Our leaders were telling us lies in behalf of special
interests into whose pockets Washington was pouring the
taxpayers’ money. Our leaders engineered wars that
put billions of dollars into such disreputable pockets
as Halliburton’s, the firm of the American outlaw,
Dick Cheney, and into Blackwater, supplier of the overpaid
mercenaries that the Bush Regime uses to beef up its military
force in Iraq. Some of the taxpayers’ billions,
of course, recycled into “our” representatives
reelection campaign funds.
Our leaders were too busy making trips to Israel to reaffirm
their support for Israel’s ongoing theft of Palestine
and for wars that enable this theft.
Our leaders were too busy serving financial interests
by dismantling regulatory barriers to over-leveraged greed.
The extraordinary level of leveraged debt and the fraudulent
financial instruments resulted in annual compensation
for hedge fund managers and investment bankers larger
than a king’s ransom.
When the leveraged mortgages went bust, the banksters
declared a “crisis” and Congress responded
by ripping off the American taxpayers for another trillion
dollars.
More is to come. Credit card debt, car loans, and commercial
real estate mortgages have been securitized, too. There
is little doubt there are derivatives based on this enormous
pile of debt. As each “crisis” unfolds, it
will mean more bailout rewards for the crooks who deep-sixed
the US economy.
It is not implausible that by the end of this year the
unemployment rate, honestly measured, will be as high
as during the Great Depression.
Few in Washington think there is any cause for alarm.
Obama is calling the situation “serious” not
because he believes it is but in order to get another
trillion dollar “stimulus” package on the
taxpayers’ books. Stimulus will do the trick, economists
say, and, moreover, the Federal Reserve has already extended
$2 trillion in loans, but won’t say to whom the
money has been lent.
This massive expansion of new debt, economists think,
is going to fix the economy and put people back to work.
They think the solution to excessive debt is more debt.
The federal government budget deficit for the 2009 fiscal
year will be $2 trillion at a minimum. That is five times
larger than the 2008 budget deficit.
How can the Treasury finance such a huge deficit?
There are three sources of financing. Possibly people
will flee from stocks, bank deposits, and money market
funds into Treasury “securities.” This would
require a form of “money illusion” on the
part of people. People would have to believe that investments
can be printed, and that printing so many new Treasury
bonds would not dilute the value of existing bonds or
reduce their chance of redemption. They would have to
believe that the bonds would be repaid with honest money,
not by running the printing presses.
A second source of financing might be America’s
foreign creditors. So far in our descent into massive
debt foreigners have footed the bill. Our foreign creditors
now hold very large amounts of US debt and other dollar-denominated
“securities.” They are likely to develop a
case of cold feet when they see a $2 trillion expansion
in US debt in one year. Their most likely response will
be to start selling their existing holdings.
Who would purchase them? The only way the Treasury can
redeem the bonds that come due each year is by selling
new bonds. Not only must the Treasury find purchasers
for $2 trillion in new debt this year but also must find
buyers for the bonds that must be sold in order to redeem
old bonds that come due.
If foreigners cease buying and instead start selling
from their existing holdings--China alone holds $500 billion
in Treasury debt--a deluge will fall on an already flooded
market.
The third source of financing is for the Federal Reserve
to monetize the debt. In other words, the Treasury prints
bonds and the Fed purchases them by printing money. The
supply of money thus expands dramatically in relation
to goods and services, and high inflation, possibly hyperinflation,
would engulf America.
At that point the US dollar, if still on its feet, collapses.
The import-dependent American population, dependent on
imports for their mobility, their clothes, shoes, manufactured
goods, and advanced technology products, no longer will
be able to afford these imports.
A scary scenario? Yes. Overdrawn? Perhaps, but perhaps
not. The United States has spent the last 7 years in pointless
wars that benefited only the military-security complex
and Israel’s aggression against Palestinians and
Lebanon. According to prominent experts, the out-of-pocket
cost and already incurred future liabilities of Bush’s
wars comes to $3 trillion.
The cost of the Bush Regime’s wars, together with
the 2009 budget deficit that Bush has bequeathed to Obama,
equals half of the accumulated national debt of the United
States.
Several years ago United States Comptroller General David
Walker informed Congress and the White House that the
accrued liabilities of the US government exceeded the
ability to pay. Yet, “our” leaders ignored
the Comptroller General and rushed headlong to add more
trillions of dollars to federal liabilities. In effect,
the United States is bankrupt at this present moment.
According to generally accepted accounting principles,
the federal government has a negative net worth of $59.3
trillion.
Who is going to lend to a bankrupt government that is
ruled by financial crooks, the military-security complex,
and the Israel Lobby? How long will the world finance
US aggression that disrupts energy prices, keeps the world
on edge, and makes America’s creditors complicit
in war crimes?