U.S. Economy May Shrink 1.5% in 2009 as Recession Stymies Fed
Shobhana Chandra and Alex Tanzi Bloomberg
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2009
Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009
and projected Federal Reserve policy makers won’t
be able to start raising interest rates until 2010, according
to a monthly Bloomberg News survey.
The world’s largest economy will contract 1.5 percent
this year, a half percentage point more than projected
last month, according to the median of 59 forecasts in
the survey taken from Jan. 5 to Jan. 12. The slump will
push inflation below what some Fed officials consider
price stability, the survey showed.
“It’s very hard to get anything into place
to change the course of the economy in the first half
of this year,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist
at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “We’re
in the middle of something very deep here.”
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How quickly the U.S. will pull out of the slide may depend
on the $775 billion stimulus package that President-elect
Barack Obama is pushing lawmakers to enact next month.
The projections indicate he’ll be seeking to halt
what may be the longest recession since World War II.
“This is a once-in-a-century crisis, and we’re
about to see a once-in-a-century response,” said
Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities USA
Inc. in New York. “We could be in for a wild ride”
depending on the timing and size of the stimulus, he said.
Quarterly Forecasts
Gross domestic product dropped at a 5 percent annual
pace in the last three months of 2008 and will contract
3 percent this quarter, with a 0.8 percent drop in the
next three months, according to the survey median. All
estimates were lower than in the previous monthly survey.