British documentary filmmaker Martin Durkin has taken his share
of heat for producing a film, entitled The Great Global Warming
Swindle, that calls the conventional wisdom on global warming
into question. Instead of pointing to greenhouse gases as the drivers
of modern climate change, Durkin's film suggests that the sun
is responsible for changes in the earth's climate. Aired first
on British television, the documentary has now been shown on Australian
television as well where it was a ratings
success with nearly one-fourth of all Australian viewers tuning
in.
In both countries, the success of the film has been accompanied
by harsh criticism from those supporting the orthodox view of global
warming. "This isn't a documentary, because documentaries
are about fact," said Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg of the University
of Queensland. Australian politician Lyn Allison derided the film
as one suited only to "conspiracy theorist skeptics."
Durkin responded to the criticism in The Australian newspaper
on July 7. Pointing out that global warming is a political theory
and not a scientific theory, Durkin noted, "The present alarm
is not based on observational data. It is based on models."
Global warming has caught on as a cause, he said, because "The
media and academe (as those of us on the inside know very well)
are, in the main, soft left and soft green. We like things that
are natural, we think the market is cruel, and we recycle not because
it's logical but because it feels right. In these circles global
warming has become part of social etiquette. It is as unacceptable
to question it as it is to say that you admire George W. Bush or
think organic food is a con."
Still, in recent days, the idea that the sun is driving climate
change seemed to have been dealt a heavy blow by findings published
in the current issue of the Proceedings of the Royal Society
A. "Up until 1985 you could argue that the sun was [trending]
in a direction that could have contributed to Earth's rising
temperatures," said study author A. Mike Lockwood of the University
of Southampton in Britain.
But according to Lockwood, two decades ago the sun "did a U-turn.
If the sun had been warming the Earth, that should have come to
an end, and we should have seen temperatures start to go the other
way." Nevertheless, reported
National Geographic, "Earth's temperatures have
continued to climb since that date—making a strong solar role in
warming appear unlikely.
Other scientists aren't so sure. Among them is Dr. David Whitehouse,
an astronomer and author of the book The Sun: A Biography.
Writing in the London
Telegraph, Whitehouse, contradicting National Geographic,
points out, "The world certainly warmed between 1975 and 1998,
but in the past 10 years it has not been increasing at the rate
it did. No scientist could honestly look at global temperatures
over the past decade and see a rising curve."
To conclude, says Whitehouse of the new study on the sun's effect
on climate, "we see that when the sun's activity was rising,
the world warmed. When it peaked in activity in the late 1980s,
within a few years global warming stalled. A coincidence, certainly:
a connection, possibly."
At the end of his article, Whitehouse concludes with a statement
that is far too infrequently heard in the climate debate. "A
scientist's first allegiance should not be to computer models
or political spin but to the data," he says. That data, he
says, "shows the science is not settled."
