The dollar is trading at all time lows against
the euro and gold for good reasons. The Bush administration
has flooded the world with greenbacks, and global investors
have little confidence in the management of the U.S. economy.
During the Bush years, the U.S. trade deficit has doubled.
Thanks to dysfunctional energy policies and tolerance for
Chinese mercantilism, the deficit has exceeded $700 billion
each of the last three years and is more than 5 percent of
GDP.
The Bush energy policy emphasizes incentives for domestic
oil production and letting rising prices instigate conservation
but those have failed. Domestic crude oil production is falling,
the price of gas has risen from $1.51 to $3.21, automakers
have populated U.S. roads with fuel guzzling SUVs, and petroleum
now accounts for about $380 billion of the trade deficit.
Cheap imports from China have chased millions of Americans
from manufacturing jobs, as the U.S. purchases from the Middle
Kingdom exceed sales there by nearly five to one. The trade
deficit with China is about $250 billion.
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China has engineered this competitive triumph by keeping
its yuan even cheaper than the dollar, euro and gold. Annually,
it sells at deep discount about $460 billion worth of yuan
for dollars, euros and other currencies in foreign exchange
markets. That provides a 33 percent subsidy on Chinese exports
and keeps Chinese goods cheap on the shelves at Wal-Mart.
The Bush administration has sought changes in China’s
currency policies through diplomacy and has failed. Paradoxically,
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has managed to tar as protectionist
any proposal for U.S. government action to offset Chinese
subsidies.
The remainder of the trade deficit is largely autos and parts
from Japan and Korea, who through various means have kept
the yen and won cheap, too.
The huge trade deficit must be financed either by attracting
foreign investment in new productive assets in the United
States or by printing IOUs. Investment has only provided about
10 percent of necessary cash, so each year the United States
sells currency, bank deposits, Treasury securities, bonds,
and the like to foreigners. Those claims on the U.S. economy
now total about $6.5 trillion.
That floods world financial markets with U.S. dollars and
paper assets that function much like U.S. dollars -- what
economists call liquidity. And, it evokes an iron law of the
universe. If you print too much money, it won’t have
any value.
Until recently, most of that borrowed purchasing power was
put into the hands of U.S. consumers by the large Wall Street
banks. Essentially, through mortgage brokers and regional
banks, those Wall Street banks loaned Americans money to buy
homes and refinance their mortgages. In turn, the banks got
the cash needed by bundling mortgages, as well as auto loans
and credit card debt, into collateralized-debt-obligations
-- bonds backed by consumer promises to pay -- for sale to
fixed income investors, hedge funds and others.
The bankers could get reasonably rich on this scheme but
got greedy. Last summer, we learned that the banks were not
creating legitimate bonds. Instead they sliced, diced and
pureed loans into incomprehensibly arcane securities, and
then sold, bought, resold, and insured those contraptions
to generated fat fees, big profits and generous bonuses for
bank executives.
Now investors ranging from U.S. insurance companies to the
Saudi Royals are not much interested in buying bonds created
by large U.S. banks, and the banks can no longer make loans
to many credit-worthy consumers and businesses. Without credit,
the U.S. economy cannot grow and prosper.
The Federal Reserve has direct regulatory responsibility
for the large U.S. banks, and it is Ben Bernanke’s job
to require them to fix their business practices and resurrect
the market for bonds backed by bank loans.
Yet, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has offered no plan
to address these problems, or even acknowledged the urgency
of the situation. And, without a well functioning banking
system, the U.S. economy heads into recession of uncertain
depth and duration.
International investors, recognizing the U.S. economy lacks
competent helmsmen at Treasury and the Federal Reserve, are
fleeing the dollar for the best available substitute -- the
euro and gold.
When George Bush was inaugurated, the euro was trading at
94 cents and gold cost $266 an ounce. Now they are trading
at $1.52 and $985 an ounce. That is a plain vote of no confidence
in the Bush–Bernanke economic model.