President Bush began his second term with a big push for
"Social Security privatization." I put the words
in quotes to point out that his plan, and no mainstream plan,
is actual privatization. What he proposed was the gradual
replacement of a publicly funded welfare program – those
premiums you pay are really just taxes – with a mandatory
private scheme.
Before we go on, let me explain. Let's say the government
provided you lunch every day. The food was bad and the price
for taxpayers was sky high. So instead, some Beltway policy
wonk suggests that government not do this anymore. To be sure,
lunch will be eaten. In fact, government will force you to
both pay for and eat lunch. To assure its quality, government
will designate certain spots where you will eat. It will have
authorized restaurants and meal packages.
The plan is proposed by people calling themselves "market
liberals." They say it is a step in the right direction,
toward freedom. From the point of view of everyone else, what
do you think? It's not like you can now skip lunch and save
the money. And who can't but notice that there is a large
sector of lunch-providers that now have a stake in the program?
The lunch business is being subsidized in a big way. We might
even say that the previously private lunch industry has been
nationalized.
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I'll stop the analogy there without discussing what happens
when the lunches deliver food poisoning, and there is an inevitable
public outrage. Here we can move directly to the real world.
Let's say Bush had actually achieved his goal of creating
private accounts that you are forced to contribute to, and
a sizeable swath of the American public had invested in safe
mutual funds spread across many sectors.
What would have been the result? Look at the state of the
financial markets.
The Bush administration would have holy Hell to pay. The
public would have turned against the "market liberals"
who gave us this scam. Capitalism would have been denounced
as having generated yet another shock-therapy failure. Investment
standards would have been ever more regulated. The companies
that held most of the "private" funds would be declared
too big too fail. The sub-prime bailout would have become
a full-bore stock market bailout. This would have been declared
the ultimate failure of free markets.
I think we can be pleased that Bush was unable to muster
public enthusiasm for the program. And why wasn't he? Not
because it would have still resulted in a forced program.
That wasn't the issue, even if it should have been one issue.
There were the inevitable fears that Bush's program would
lead to cuts in Social Security payments. But more importantly,
news began to leak out that the Bush administration hadn't
been wholly honest about the transition costs of switching
from a socialist to a fascist system. Indeed, none of the
advocates of phony privatization have been honest about this.
Here's the problem. Those paying massive taxes into the system
now are also paying the current receivers of Social Security.
Once you cut away the rhetoric and fancy finance, it works
exactly like a regular welfare program, taxing you to pay
him. The outlays are growing exponentially, having doubled
in ten years to the point that it rivals the budget for war
and empire. To divert the incoming funds to some other project
would blast an amazing hole in the budget, which would have
to be covered by taxes or debt or inflation. We are talking
here about perhaps $12 trillion, so this is a serious matter.
Is it any wonder that neither the advocates of faux-privatization
nor the Bush administration want to talk about this?
Just raising the subject of the transition exposes the whole
lie of the system. It is not social insurance. We are not
paying premiums, which we later collect as an income stream.
Current recipients are collecting current taxes. Just realizing
that – and focusing on the transition prompts such a
realization – gets to the heart of the Social Security
lie.
People ask what is the way out? There is the easy answer
– abolish it completely and instantly – or the
more political viable answer, which would permit current payers
to opt out of the system completely. Those who opt out surrender
all claims on future benefits. The current recipients could
be paid. Yes, this would cause a financial crisis, and probably
prompt a rethinking of the ridiculous idea that people ought
to retire at 65, which is very young by today's standards.
Moreover, there would be two giant steps in the right direction:
the majority would be completely free from the Social Security
stranglehold, and it would be suddenly obvious that the system
is a transfer program pure and simple.
All that aside, what Bush decided to do, in the end, was
nothing at all. That's a terrible choice until you consider
what he might have done. It's hard to be grateful for anything
during the Bush presidency, but a phony privatization that
would have discredited free markets is one.