TrendPointers Investment Sentiment Signals indicate that
reality and psychology have finally met and embraced one another.
Truly negative sentiment is at an all time high in the media.
We track investment and economic sentiment in three major
media sources, but the business media is the one we watch
most. The gurus may be early, the mass media are usually too
late, but once the trend becomes apparent in the business
media its time to think about some actions. Now, all three
media sentiment trends are definitely negative and positive
views have nearly disappeared.
-- Guru media: Positive Sentiment 5% vs. Negative 43%
-- Business media: Positive 10% vs. Negative 45%
-- Mass media: Positive 13% vs. Negative 34%.
TrendPointers' Sentiment Signals has reported the predominantly
negative/uncertain mood since April of 2007, it took a turn
for the worse in the fall of 2007, and the reality has now
caught up with the news. 90% of the business media sentiment
is at best uncertain or convinced that the economy is in serious
trouble.
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The long feared collapse of the housing market and the sub-prime
crunch is real -- oil is over $100 a barrel, the continuing
slide of the dollar and employment woes. There is little consensus
about how the "rebates" will help. There is little
agreement about what could support a genuine rebound. Historical
evidence is often cited regarding the length of recessions,
but many in the media cite the "perfect storm" of
economic ruptures.
But, now that the "Recession" moment has arrived
perhaps there is also a sigh of relief, because the anticipation
part is over, and the observers can focus on the recovery
hopes.
As we write this the Fed has supported credit availability
and the market has skyrocketed. We'll be watching sentiment
very closely over the next two weeks to see if the renewed
hope sticks.
Sentiment Signals is a proprietary method for interpreting
the content of public news with regard to the message, advice,
warnings and other aspects of "sentiment." The cumulative
flow and impact of media sentiment influences decisions. TrendPointers
captures the sentiment shifts first.
To access the full Sentiment Signals Report, visit www.trendpointers.com.
