Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be readying
the deepest interest-rate cut in a generation as the central
bank struggles to prevent a meltdown in financial markets
and a recession.
Traders predict the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting
today in Washington, will lower the overnight lending rate
by a full percentage point or more, based on futures prices
in Chicago. That would be the biggest reduction since 1984,
when Paul Volcker led the central bank, and would bring the
benchmark rate down to 2 percent.
The Fed took emergency steps over the weekend to stave off
a financial panic, lowering its rate on direct loans to banks
and becoming lender of last resort for Wall Street's biggest
dealers in government bonds.
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``The Fed has moved very aggressively to deal with liquidity
problems that are major,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley,
now a senior adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington,
who said today's reduction may be as much as a full percentage
point. ``They need to be aggressive on the monetary policy
side. This is the worst crisis we have faced in more than
50 years.''
The severity of the crisis was underscored by the Fed's emergency
action on the evening of March 16, the first weekend policy
shift since 1979. A week ago, the debate among economists
was whether the Fed would cut by 50 basis points or 75 basis
points.
Volcker's Fed
Now, a reduction of 1 percentage point is seen as a sure
bet among futures traders and some anticipate a move of as
much as 1.25 percentage points. Either would be the deepest
since Volcker's Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 10 percent
from 11.75 percent in October 1984.
The dollar fell to $1.5812 per euro at 11:13 a.m. in London
from $1.5729 yesterday, its fifth straight decline. Against
the yen, the U.S. currency was little changed at 97.39 yen.
Treasuries declined, pushing the two-year yield up 2 basis
points to 1.37 percent.
Bernanke, whose views on monetary policy were shaped by his
scholarly work on the Great Depression, has seen losses at
the world's biggest banks and securities dealers balloon to
$195 billion since the start of last year, culminating in
the collapse last week of the fifth-largest securities firm,
Bear Stearns Cos.
Bernanke has failed to calm the turmoil, which his predecessor
Alan Greenspan calls the ``most wrenching'' since the end
of World War II, even after lowering the overnight rate five
times since September and committing to pump an unprecedented
$400 billion in cash and securities into the banking system.
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