TOKYO — The dollar, which tumbled to an almost 13-year
low against the yen on Monday, may soon find a protector here
— the Japanese finance ministry.
With broad powers over Japan’s nearly $5 trillion economy,
the ministry has intervened in the past when the dollar fell
sharply, notably late in 2003 and early in 2004 when it sold
some $350 billion worth of yen to buy mostly dollars, propping
up the value of the American currency.
A weak dollar hurts big Japanese exporters like Sony and
Toyota by driving down the value of their overseas earnings
in yen, and leading them to raise prices abroad to compensate.
Many economists and currency analysts are beginning to wonder
whether the dollar’s sharp declines in recent weeks
will push the ministry to try another large-scale intervention.
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So far, it has chosen not to act, signaling a willingness
to let market forces take their course. But if the dollar
continues its drop, threatening Japan’s export-led economic
growth, analysts say the government could come under increasing
pressure to act.
“The ministry has shown itself very reluctant to intervene
this time,” said Tohru Sasaki, chief foreign exchange
strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo. “But the ministry
may feel it has to do something” if the dollar continues
to fall.
JPMorgan Chase’s agreement on Sunday to buy Bear Stearns
rekindled uncertainty over the fate of American banks in the
extremely tight credit market. On Monday, the dollar remained
below parity of 100 yen, falling as low as 95.72 here during
the trading session, its worst level since August 1995. In
New York later, it settled at 98.04 yen. In the last month,
the dollar has dropped more than 10 percent against the yen.
Concern for Japanese corporate profits, combined with fears
of the effects of an American recession, drove the benchmark
Nikkei 225 stock index down 3.7 percent on Monday, to a two-and-a-half-year
low. Early Tuesday, the index was higher.
Over the weekend, articles in Japanese newspapers discussed
when the finance ministry would be forced to step in and help
to shore up the dollar. On Monday, Finance Minister Fukushiro
Nukaga added to the speculation by calling the dollar’s
recent declines “excessive,” signaling growing
concern.
If the ministry does act, it will bring with it some of the
world’s deepest pockets. During previous interventions
in the currency markets, the ministry accumulated about $1
trillion worth of United States Treasury debt and other non-yen
assets, helping give Japan foreign currency reserves second
only to China’s.
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