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Illogical Conclusions from Supposed Experts on Arctic Ice

Ann Shibler
JBS
Wednesday, March 26, 2008

MSNBC ran a story on Arctic sea ice on March 18 from the Associated Press that included comments from professionals that seem positively unhinged from reality.

Follow this link to the original source: "Arctic Sea Ice Returned, But It’s Much Thinner"

While admitting that Arctic sea ice made a partial recovery this winter, federal scientists are still favoring Chicken Little’s "the sky is falling, the sky is falling," alarm to foist on the general public.

Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center told reporters: "Thickness is an indicator of long-term health of sea ice, and that’s not looking good at the moment. What’s going on underneath the surface is really the key thing." He added, "It may look OK but if you could see behind you’d see … it’s just empty. And what we’re seeing with the ice cover is it’s becoming more and more empty underneath the ice cover."

(Article continues below)

NASA satellite images show Arctic ice cover to be well on it’s way back to previous levels. But NASA ice scientist Josefino Comiso says more than 70 percent of that sea ice is new, and thin and salty. The more important ice is a thicker perennial sea ice that normally lasts through the summer.

For his part, Meier says the Arctic has lost more than half of it’s perennial sea ice and three-quarters of it is "tough as nails" sea ice that is six years or older. Meier says that the stronger "tough as nails" perennial ice is being replaced by younger, frailer new ice that is more easily disturbed by wind and warm sea temps.

If it’s "tough as nails," how could it possibly be replaced by younger, frailer new ice? The federal scientists' explanation? It’s because of a change in Arctic atmospheric pressure this winter that pushed the older more valuable ice out of the Artic to melt elsewhere.

This prompted Mark Serreze, another ice center senior scientist to exclaim, "We’re in for a world of hurt this summer." (He believes there will be more melting this year than last.)

The good news from these professional federal scientists is that at the South Pole, the sea ice seems stable, or even above normal. But it doesn’t really matter because ice levels in Antarctic are always different from the Arctic and "aren’t as connected to the world’s weather."

An outside observer should ask, "is this is science?" It appears that the federal scientists are making predictions based on very short term observations. But in the Arctic, as with climate generally, radical change over longer cycles is to be expected because the system is chaotic and dynamic. Of course, these scientists know this, so why the constant predictions of doom?

While it’s possible "the sky is falling," the cause isn’t melting Arctic ice or global warming.

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