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Israel sees dwindling chance
of US strike on Iran, despite nuclear 'smoking gun'
Nick Juliano
Raw
Story
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
During his whirlwind tour of US-friendly nations in the Middle
East, Vice President Dick Cheney claimed Iran was "heavily
involved" in developing a nuclear bomb -- an allegation that
is at odds with what's known about the regime.
Although his trip also focused on the war in Iraq, sky-high oil
prices and the ongoing quest for peace between Israel and Palestine,
Iran was never far from the vice president's mind. Although the
US and Israel believe they have found a "smoking gun"
in Iran's enrichment of uranium, the chances of a unilateral US
strike are seen as "remote," according to JTA news service.
With U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in Israel this week talking
about Iran, the big question was whether President Bush would
be willing to use military force in the waning days of his presidency
to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. The answer from most
Israeli intelligence analysts: not likely. ... Israel also figures
that the chances of the Bush administration ordering a pre-emptive
military strike against Iran are virtually zero. The only such
scenario the Israelis envision is if the Democratic presidential
candidates appear to be far ahead of their Republican rival
and Bush senses a "now or never" strike option. Even
in these circumstances, the Israelis say, an American strike
is highly unlikely. ??Still, the Israelis are hoping that the
hard-line Cheney will push the envelope -- a role he reportedly
played vis-a-vis the U.S. invasion of Iraq. One official said
Cheney is seen as "a significant player" who could
influence "serious issues that cannot wait."
(Article continues below)
Cheney told ABC News's Martha Raddatz that Iran was "obviously
... heavily involved in trying to develop nuclear weapons enrichment."
The Los Angeles Times notes that Iran has denied trying to develop
a nuclear weapon and the uranium enrichment that has been demonstrated
is in line with energy production, not weapons development.
Iran is currently enriching uranium at its plant in Natanz
in central Iran. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched or concentrated
at 80% or 90%. According to the latest International Atomic
Energy Agency report, Iran currently enriches uranium at concentrations
of less than 3.8%, which is the amount necessary for creating
fuel for a reactor. Iran insists its nuclear program is for
peaceful energy production, but the U.S. and other Western countries
have cast suspicion. Nevertheless, Cheney's comments contradict
both U.S. intelligence agencies' assessments of Iran's nuclear
program and the findings of the IAEA. Both say, and Iranians
admit, that Iran is trying to master the enrichment of uranium.
But no one has yet come up with proof that Iran is now actively
trying to produce weapons-grade nuclear material.
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