Reserve currency status is like your health: Abuse it, and
you risk losing it.
With the dollar's 45 percent decline against the euro during
the past six years and its 37 percent drop on a trade-weighted
basis, there is a growing concern that the greenback's six-decade
reign as the world's most important currency may be ending.
It's not. The dollar is the world's reserve currency, and
absent some unexpected exogenous shock, will probably remain
so for some time.
Nonetheless, the dollar's premier status is under threat,
especially as a store of wealth, by both foreign governments
and private investors. Also, companies are using it less as
a currency in which to invoice and settle international trade
transactions.
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Why care? Reserve currency status allows the U.S. government
to borrow in its own currency, lets the U.S. run large trade
deficits, and helps the government and American companies
to fund themselves at low interest rates. It makes it easier
for U.S. companies to do business and increases the international
demand for U.S. assets.
Moreover, as the specie of choice, the dollar is blessed
with seigniorage, the interest-free loan America receives
from the hundreds of billions of dollars held overseas and
hoarded as misfortune insurance.
Although the composition of official central-bank foreign-
exchange holdings receives the lion's share of attention when
people talk about reserves, it is the private sector's trade
in goods and services that plays a dominant role in determining
a currency's international status.
Cash Reserves
Official reserves equal 33 percent of global imports, according
to UBS AG. If a company in country A trades with a company
in country B and the transaction is invoiced and settled in
the currency of country C, that third currency will have reserve
status. That's because both companies are likely to keep cash
balances in that currency.
``The dollar is the most important reserve currency in the
world, but it is no longer the only reserve currency, nor
even the overwhelmingly dominant choice as a reserve currency,''
says Paul Donovan, a London-based economist at UBS.
Full
article here.