As the death toll continues to climb in the wake of the
7.9 magnitude earthquake that rocked China's Sichuan province
Monday, evidence has surfaced suggesting that Chinese officials
were warned of the quake days earlier, yet suppressed the
news.
The earthquake, China's deadliest in 30 years, struck on
the afternoon of May 12th in Wenchuan county, Sichuan province,
and could be felt as far away as Vietnam and Beijing.
As of Tuesday, the official death toll has exceeded 12,000,
with over 18,000 more missing, many of them buried beneath
the rubble of buildings and schools flattened in the quake.
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On May 7th, five days before the deadly quake struck, a seismologist
from Wuhan city posted a notice on the Internet predicting
that an earthquake would strike on May 12th.
"According to information I have in hand, and exchanges
that I have had with some foreign colleagues, I predict China
will have an earthquake on May 12, 2008. The approximate location
will be in the middle of Sichuan and Hubei, though all China
may feel the tremors," read the notice.
The man went on to note that his predictions could not be
announced publicly because it could cause "panic."
Even before the notice was posted, rumors were spreading
in Sichuan province of a potential earthquake. Sichuan residents
apparently made calls to the local Earthquake Preparedness
and Disaster Reduction office of the Provincial Seismological
Bureau to verify whether or not the rumors were true.
The bureau denied the possibility of a quake, and on May
9th, a notice was published on the local government Web site
dismissed the earthquake rumors. The notice read in part:
On May 3, the Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Reduction
of the Seismological Bureau of Ahazhou received calls to inquire
whether the rumors were true that Suomo Town, Maerkong County
[Sichuan province] was going to have a major earthquake and
that village officials advised villagers to stay outdoors.
After receiving the calls, the Bureau immediately asked
the Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Reduction of the
Seismological Bureau of Maerkong County to investigate the
source of the rumor, to dispel it, to widely explain the actual
situation, and to prevent the rumor from spreading further.
Three days later, after the earthquake struck, the notice
was deleted. A screenshot of the notice can be seen on the
Epoch Times Web site.
Some Chinese netizens have begun openly speculating that
the regime deliberately concealed news of the earthquake in
spite of evidence.
"Even when there were already signs indicating an earthquake,
the Sichuan Seismological Bureau still suppressed and failed
to report the information, completely disregarding people's
lives," wrote one Internet user who claimed to have a
relative working in the Provincial Seismological Bureau. "My
uncle called me some time ago and told me about the earthquake
warning signs, but the Bureau didn't allow them to release
the information and stressed the need to ensure stability
before the Olympics."
Memories of Tangshan
The earthquake in Sichuan is the deadliest to strike China
since July, 1976, when a massive earthquake levelled the city
of Tangshan, killing anywhere from 242,419 to upwards of 655,000
people.
Then, too, scientists had seen warning signs of an impending
earthquake. Among them was Yang Youchen, a seismologist who
says he made predictions of the earthquake in early 1976.
Yang said he had predicted that a large earthquake would strike
Tangshan in July or August of that year.
In May, just months before the earthquake, he presented his
data to a conference organized by the China Earthquake Association,
which failed to take seriously his warnings. He said he also
spoke with the Tangshan Communist Party Secretary about the
potential for an earthquake, but the city's deputy mayor ruled
that it was too early to put the city on alert. Soon thereafter,
Yang was sent to a reeducation class to reform his thinking.
Another geologist, Ma Xirong, alerted the China Earthquake
Association (CEA) just weeks before the quake of strange fluctuations
he'd noticed in the earth's electrical resistance readers.
He similarly warned that a catastrophic earthquake could be
on the way, but CEA officials dismissed his findings.
In light of repeated warnings from geological monitoring
centers, some officials did take note, risking their political
careers to help prepare people for an earthquake.
Wang Chengmin, a CEA expert, circulated warnings of an imminent
earthquake near Tangshan and spoke with a small group of officials
from surrounding areas about his concerns. One of them, Wang
Chunqing, brought news back to the nearby county of Qinglong,
where citizens were warned of the coming disaster. These efforts,
by some estimates, may have saved as many as 400,000 lives.
Following the earthquake in Tangshan, China's leaders refused
to acknowledge the scale of the disaster or accept international
relief efforts, determined to preserve an image of China as
a communist utopia.