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Bush Success Rating at Historic
Low
Bart
Jansen
CQ
Wednesday September 5, 2007
President Bush’s success rating in the Democratic-controlled
House has fallen this year to a half-century low, and he prevailed
on only 14 percent of the 76 roll call votes on which he took
a clear position.
The previous low for any president was in 1995, when Bill Clinton
won just 26 percent of the time during the first year after Republicans
took control of the House. If Bush’s score holds through
the end of the year, he will have the lowest success rating in
either chamber for any president since Congressional Quarterly
began analyzing votes in 1953.
A study of House and Senate floor votes, compiled by CQ over
the August recess, also showed that House Democrats have backed
Bush’s legislative positions this year only 6 percent of
the time, making for the strongest opposition from either party
against a president in the 54 years CQ has kept score.
(Article continues below)
A separate analysis of so-called party unity votes, in which
a majority of one party votes against a majority of the other,
showed the possibility of another historic first for House Democrats.
So far this year, Democrats have backed the majority position
of their caucus 91 percent of the time on average on such votes.
That marks the highest Democratic unity score in 51 years.
Although any president can count on a certain amount of discontent
from the opposing party — especially one that controls Congress
— Bush’s low success rating and his low support scores
among House Democrats are a direct result of disagreements with
him over the Iraq War and spending priorities, according to a
review of votes.
By comparison, House Democrats supported President Richard Nixon
46 percent of the time in 1974, the year he resigned. Nixon prevailed
on votes 68 percent of the time that year, despite the Watergate
fallout. And House Republican support for President Lyndon B.
Johnson stood at 51 percent in 1968, during the height of the
Vietnam War. Johnson succeeded 84 percent of the time on votes
that year.
Bush has fared better in the Senate this year than in the House,
though his success rate also has declined there. He was successful
on 40 of 55 Senate votes on which he took a clear position. His
success score of 72 percent is still the lowest since Bush took
office. Clinton’s Senate success rates under GOP control
were lower than Bush’s every year, and his 42 percent score
in 1999 was the lowest since 1953.
Of the Senate votes so far this year on which Bush took a position,
22 were on nominations. He was successful on all of them, which
helped elevate his score considerably.
But it was the high-profile conflicts over Bush’s Iraq
policy, which played out in both chambers on individual bills
and on amendments to the fiscal 2008 defense authorization (HR
1585) and the fiscal 2008 Defense appropriations (HR 3222) bills,
that dragged his scores down. All the appropriations bills were
flash points, and Bush has threatened to veto nine of the 12 annual
spending bills passed by the House.
Some of the policy disputes that divided the parties —
and pitted congressional Democrats against the president —
included bills for expanding embryonic stem cell research (HR
3), negotiating Medicare drug prices (HR 4) and enhancing punishments
for hate crimes (HR 1592). Differences over proposed cuts in subsidies
for student lenders (HR 2669), a five-year farm programs reauthorization
(HR 2419) and children’s health coverage (HR 3162) also
affected the scores.
Bush’s flagging success resulted partially from Republicans
parting company with him. House Republicans have supported Bush
on the floor an average of 74 percent of the time this year, while
Senate Republicans have supported him 81 percent of the time.
Both scores are the lowest of his presidency.
Similarly, Republicans have been less unified than in the recent
past on votes that feature a majority of one party facing off
against a majority of the other. In the House so far this year,
526 of the 839 roll call votes have met that definition. The same
is true for the Senate, where the parties have divided on 193
votes out of 310 cast.
House Republican unity this year has ebbed to 85 percent, and
Senate GOP unity slumped to 81 percent. Both averages are the
lowest since 1994.
That has come as the majority Democrats became more unified.
The average House Democratic unity score of 91 percent matches
the high-water mark that Republicans scored three times: in 1995,
2001 and 2003.
The average Senate Democratic unity score so far this year is
similarly high at 88 percent, almost reaching the party’s
peak score of 89 percent posted twice: in 1999 and 2001.
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